If you want to learn more about the various statistics pertaining to marriage, read this article. It covers the population estimates for each age group, sex and marital status and historical trends in the rates of marriage and divorce. You can also learn about the methods used to calculate divorce rates. The statistics presented below are relevant to the world population. However, the most important part of this article is the Methods section. By the time you’ve finished reading this article, you should be well-informed and confident with the data.
Population estimates by age group, sex and marital status
The data collected on population is available in two forms: censuses and sample surveys. While censuses do not suffer from sampling variability, the results may be biased by reporting errors. These estimates are produced by national statistical offices and reported to the Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Only when these statistics have been reported by a national statistical office are they used. Here are the differences between censuses and sample surveys:
The national population estimate, as well as the provincial and territorial ones, includes age-specific data. The data on age-group are available for all countries in the world. The data on marital status are also available. These reports provide information on the proportion of men and women in each category. In addition to age groups, the data on sex and marital status include information on marriage status.
To produce population estimates by age, sex and marital status, the Demography Division uses the cohort component method. Cohort component estimates consider the events that lead to changes in legal marital status. Single-year estimates are also prepared for each of four subpopulations: males, females, and children. These estimates are based on the July 1st census count adjusted for census net undercoverage.
Age and sex structure of populations vary over time and geographical area. Age-related mortality and migration patterns are commonly associated with age groups. However, young adults are more likely to move, whether for economic or personal reasons. Other divisions of Statistics Canada rely on age-group-related estimates to help determine employment rates and crime rates. This information can help to analyze the social and economic conditions of a particular area.
The Census Bureau uses current data to compile year-by-year projections of population. These projections are residential and serve as a foundation for assessing infrastructure and service needs. The methodology used for the projections is known as the “cohort component” demographic method. Traditionally, the last year in a series was named “vintage” year. These projections can be state and county-level, as well as by age group, sex and marital status.
As mentioned earlier, these estimates are based on official sources of the UNECE. In most countries, the definition of marital status refers to the status of a person’s legal marriage in relation to their country’s marriage laws. For example, a person who is not legally married is considered to be a common-law partner, whereas a divorced person does not qualify as such a category.
Death rates are not calculated for each age group. However, historical data show significant disparities by sex. Future mortality rates by marital status are also expected to be the same as those of 1980 and 1981. The data are available in the National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Cause-of-Death Summary Public Use Data Tapes. The CPS data are also available for states and twelve major metropolitan statistical areas.
Historical trends in marriage rates
Marriage rates have declined for decades in the United States, with a decline of two percentage points since the Great Depression. The rate fell to eight marriages per 1,000 people in 1930 and then rebounded to 16.4 in 1946. After that, it decreased again, reaching an all-time low of 6.5 in 2008. The rate then began a long decline, declining almost 50% between 1969 and 1972. Today, the rate is at its lowest level in recorded history.
While whites and Hispanics have higher marriage rates, the proportion of blacks married is below that of whites. The age structure of blacks and Hispanics is also different than that of whites. While marriage rates have decreased overall, the proportion of married blacks has remained stable at about 12 per 1,000 women. This trend is in contrast to the U.S. average of 28 years for women. However, it does not explain the recent decline in marriage rates, which has increased by a full four percentage points since 1990.
Although the rates of marriage are declining across the board, the decline in the number of married adults in recent decades is the most dramatic for young people. In 1960, 59% of young adults were married. Today, only 48% of these young people are married, compared with 82% in 1960. Meanwhile, the median age for first marriage has increased six years in both men and women. Although researchers do not know whether young adults are abandoning marriage, their percentages are down.
The decline in the number of marriages has been preceded by increases in the number of divorces. In the mid-twentieth century, marriage formation was high and the majority of women were married, despite the high rate of poverty. After the Great Depression, divorce rates increased and then declined, and the rate of marriage for whites began to drop. Marriage rates for blacks began to decline in the 1970s, while those for whites began to rise again.
While there are no definitive reasons for marriage rates to drop, some researchers are still investigating the cause of the decline in these numbers. For instance, the lower the divorce rate, the longer marriages will last. As a result, the divorce rate is decreasing. The length of marriage has increased from 19 years in 2010 to 19.8 years in 2019.
While marriage is still great for the American people who are married, fewer Americans are marrying to reap all the benefits of being a married parent. Unfortunately, the marriage rate in the U.S. has fallen to an all-time low, at 35 percent. However, it has never been lower. The number of unmarried mothers in the United States is twice as high as it was in 1970. A decline in marriage rates may be related to declining religious adherence, unstable jobs, and strained finances.
Methods used to calculate divorce rates
There are two basic methods of calculating divorce rates in marriage statistics. The crude divorce rate looks at all marriages and includes children, single people and elderly couples. The refined rate is a simple projection that states that 19 marriages per thousand end in divorce. This number has a clear interpretation. To get the actual percentage, divide it by 10 to get the number of marriages that end in divorce each year.
There are various sources of error in divorce studies, some of which are more severe than others. Understanding the different types of error will help researchers adjust to the problem. However, the most accurate statistics will be the ones that are based on data from the same source. Here are some examples:
One method involves using the year of birth and marriage as a predictor. This method uses a life table that takes the married population by age and the number of divorces each year. A cohort is a group of people born at the same time. The data used to create the table are from 2010 and can be compared to the population at that year. The difference between age and marriage provides an estimate of the duration of the marriage.
Other methods can minimize the problem. For example, failure to report a divorce can reduce the power of the prediction. The nonresponse error is less serious than the non-response error. This error can reduce the power of a divorce prediction by 10 to 11 percent. It may also be the result of key differences between the couples that divorced. This type of error can be eliminated by applying weighting procedures.
One study looked at the age of first marriage in the NLSY79 cohort. Men married at an earlier age than women, with the majority of marriages occurring by age 28. A separate study looked at the proportion of first marriages, which was 44.2 percent. However, this data is contradictory and murky. Using one year as evidence for a rising divorce rate is not a good idea.
Divorce rates vary by age. While the divorce rate in 20 to 24-year-olds is higher than in the 40-to-49 age group, it’s still less than one percent for those 50 and older. Interestingly, divorce rates vary greatly by state, with Illinois, Louisiana, and Georgia having the lowest rates, while Nevada and Oklahoma have the highest divorce rates. Overall, the US marriage rate is 8.2 years.
One study looked at age to look at divorce rates in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. It found that those with a high school degree or less had a higher divorce rate than those with a college degree. While the age of the couple also has an impact, marriages between younger and older people are the highest risk for divorce. Another study looked at divorce rates among college graduates. Overall, these results suggest that the rates are decreasing.